Analyst Predicts Gold Prices Might Exceed $8,000 in the Next Decade as Central Banks Lose Confidence in Foreign Currency
Jan Nieuwenhuijs, a gold market analyst, has predicted that gold might exceed prices of $8,000 during the next decade, as the current Ukraine-Russia war, and the worldwide battle against inflation, shift the preference of central banks for foreign currencies to gold. The proposed long-term price model shows that each troy ounce of the metal might touch the $10,000 mark.
Analyst Makes Case for $8,000 Gold Prices
Jan Nieuwenhuijs, a gold market researcher, has predicted that the price of gold might exceed $8,000 during the next decade, as central banks shift their reserve preferences due to macroeconomic factors and war. Nieuwenhuijs believes that the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and the global war against inflation, will trigger a change in the composition of reserves.
As part of his Analysis, which considers the historical percentage of gold held by central banks as a key metric, Nieuwenhuijs states:
Central banks in aggregate have an unusual faith in foreign exchange, as gold’s percentage of total reserves accounted for 16% in 2022, against a historical average of 59%. These central banks, however, are starting to lose confidence in the currencies issued by their peers.
According to his model, if central banks stockpile 51% of their reserves in gold, the price of gold would reach $10,000 per troy ounce. However, Nieuwenhuijs clarifies that while central banks will be the ones to spearhead this pivot to gold, private banks, and other organizations will also follow the trend.
Central Banks Show Strong Gold Demand
Central banks have been stockpiling gold in recent times. In 2022, central banks purchased a record amount of gold, with reserves going up by 1,136 tons, while reserves held in the form of foreign currencies went down by $950 billion. In Q3 2022 alone, close to 400 tons of gold were purchased by central banks, according to reports from the World Gold Council.
On March 2, the World Gold Council reported the demand for gold coming from central banks continued to be strong in 2023, as 31 tons of the precious mineral were added by central banks in January. Turkey was the country that purchased the most gold, acquiring 23 tons.
Other personalities have also alerted about the rise of gold and other scarce assets, such as bitcoin. Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, predicted in February that gold could reach $5,000 by 2025, also signaling the possibility of bitcoin reaching $500,000.
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