Moody’s 48% Recession Risk: What It Means for You
US recession probability in 2025 has reached some pretty alarming levels right now, and Moody‘s recession forecast is indicating a 48% chance of an economic downturn within the next 12 months. Mark Zandi’s recession odds show this represents the highest probability ever recorded without an actual recession occurring, raising serious concerns about US economy recession risk. There is an uncomfortably high 48% probability that the U.S. economy will suffer a recession in the next 12 months. That’s according to Moody’s recently unveiled leading economic indicator, derived using a machine learning algorithm on our extensive databases. It’s less than 50%,… pic.twitter.com/AGuEJznDzQ — Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) September 14, 2025 Understanding Moody’s 48% Recession Probability: Key Indicators and Implications USA recession odds Moody assesement – Source: Watcher.Guru The 12-month recession outlook actually stems from Moody’s machine learning algorithm, which has bee...